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Post by Banana Cat on May 28, 2012 3:10:47 GMT -5
IFL Playoff Tiebreakers for 2012
Per the IFL League Office:
1) Head-to-head record 2) Strength of Schedule 3) Point differential 4) Coin Flip
Strength of schedule is decided by the combined win/loss record of all the opponents the team has faced throughout the year.
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Post by Banana Cat on May 28, 2012 3:44:56 GMT -5
It's possible Omaha and Chicago may end up tied for the last United Conference playoff spot. Lehigh also has a shot, but for this example I'll just go with Omaha and Chicago.
Going by the league tie breakers it would come down to strength of schedule, which they say Chicago is leading right now: 0.60 to 0.49.
I am not sure if they are adding opponents win-loss records to the totals more than once if a certain opponent is played more than once or not. Does anyone know the answer to that?
I forecasted Omaha's and Chicago's remaining games in with their previous games and this is what it currently looks like if you add opponents records for each time they played one another:
Omaha Opponent W - L Wichita 6 - 5 Nebraska 4 - 7 Wyoming 4 - 8 Green Bay 8 - 3 Wichita 6 - 5 Wyoming 4 - 8 Cedar Rapids 3 - 8 Sioux Falls 11 - 0 Wichita 6 - 5 Nebraska 4 - 7 Lehigh Valley 5 - 7 Cedar Rapids 3 - 8 Nebraska 4 - 7 Sioux Falls 11 - 0 Total 79 - 78
Chicago Opponent W - L Bloomington 9 - 3 Lehigh Valley 5 - 7 Bloomington 9 - 3 Cedar Rapids 3 - 8 Bloomington 9 - 3 Sioux Falls 11 - 0 Green Bay 8 - 3 Green Bay 8 - 3 Lehigh Valley 5 - 7 Cedar Rapids 3 - 8 Reading 2 - 10 Bloomington 9 - 3 Reading 2 - 10 Lehigh Valley 5 - 7 Total 88 - 75
So going by this, it looks like Chicago definitely has the advantage if the two teams end up tied, baring a sudden change in the next three weeks (doubtful).
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Post by wichitawild on May 28, 2012 10:01:50 GMT -5
Acording too the tiebreaker system quoted above, Wichita would win the tiebreaker over Allen for the 3 seed. Wichita's opponents are 79-76 right now. Allen's opponents are 69-89. If Wichita can beat Bloomington this week, the Wild should be able to end up with the 3 and make the trip to Colorado in the first round.
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Post by Banana Cat on May 28, 2012 10:29:11 GMT -5
Thanks for doing the math on that wichitawild. After I did the Omaha/Chicago math I was done.
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Post by wichitawild on May 28, 2012 10:38:00 GMT -5
I also did the math on Colorado/Wichita. It is very possible Colorado could finish with an 8-6 record as they finish with TC and SF. Wichita finishes with BLO, NM, and GB. If Wichita wins 2 out of those 3 they will also finish 8-6. This scenerio is very possible as BLO struggles against the Wild and do we really know how good BLO is?
Anyway, Colorado's opponents have a 71-91 record while Wichita's opponents are 79-76. If these teams end up tied for the 2, it looks like Wichita would get it. WOW!! Quite the turn of events if that happens.
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Post by rockybighorn on May 29, 2012 16:09:35 GMT -5
I think that is a real possibility wichitawild. Let's assume that Colrado losses out, a real possibility with TC & SF coming up. WIchita SHOULD beat NM and then only has to split with Bloom & GB. GB could have the #2 locked up and not have much to play for in the last game. With the way that Wichita has been playing lately & Colo having some really tough games I would say that Wichita certainly could be hosting a playoff game.
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Post by Bouncer_Texxx on May 29, 2012 17:43:03 GMT -5
Huge for Wichita, who started 0-3 and have seen the attendance slip this season... a nice playoff run would be very good for them.. Would love to see Wichita come to SF for a championship game. .. psx234 knows what I mean.
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Post by punisher on May 30, 2012 11:55:39 GMT -5
For head to head games don't they also use the points in those games? so for wichita, if Allen beat them twice by 5 points and by 21 points (don't know scores) and wichita's wins were by 1 point and 15 points doesn't Allen then get the tiebreaker?
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Post by Banana Cat on May 30, 2012 19:18:22 GMT -5
For head to head games don't they also use the points in those games? so for wichita, if Allen beat them twice by 5 points and by 21 points (don't know scores) and wichita's wins were by 1 point and 15 points doesn't Allen then get the tiebreaker? The tiebreakers are listed in the first post. 1) head-to-head record. So if they split, it goes to #2. 2) strength of schedule. If Wichita and Allen are tied at the end, this is the tiebreaker that will determine who's better (and right now Wichita is leading there, see wichitawild's breakdown above). The league went to strength of schedule as the second tiebreaker this year due to the league's schedule being VERY unbalanced.
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Post by Banana Cat on Jun 3, 2012 5:02:44 GMT -5
I updated the Omaha/Chicago strength of schedule records. While Omaha gained some ground, it won't be enough. Chicago will have the tiebreaker advantage if they end up tied after the last two weeks of the regular season. Omaha has to win out if they want in the playoffs to keep their streak going to 13 straight years.
Omaha Opponent W - L Wichita 7 - 5 Nebraska 4 - 8 Wyoming 4 - 9 Green Bay 9 - 3 Wichita 7 - 5 Wyoming 4 - 9 Cedar Rapids 3 - 9 Sioux Falls 12 - 0 Wichita 7 - 5 Nebraska 4 - 8 Lehigh Valley 5 - 8 Cedar Rapids 3 - 9 Nebraska 4 - 8 Sioux Falls 12 - 0 Total 85 - 86
Chicago Opponent W - L Bloomington 9 - 4 Lehigh Valley 5 - 8 Bloomington 9 - 4 Cedar Rapids 3 - 9 Bloomington 9 - 4 Sioux Falls 12 - 0 Green Bay 9 - 3 Green Bay 9 - 3 Lehigh Valley 5 - 8 Cedar Rapids 3 - 9 Reading 2 - 11 Bloomington 9 - 4 Reading 2 - 11 Lehigh Valley 5 - 8 Total 91 - 86
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Post by wichitawild on Jun 5, 2012 12:55:59 GMT -5
I just saw this post on the Wichita Wild's Facebook page:
WILD fans, here is the playoff picture this week as we near the end of the season. Thank you for your support WILD Nation! * Clinches # 2 Seed if: i. Win final two games and both Colorado and Allen lose one * Clinches # 3 Seed if: * Any combination where tied with Allen * Strength of Schedule tiebreaker to be used * Clinches #4 Seed if: i. Finish 1-1 while Allen finishes 2-0
Is this correct? This says Wichita needs to win their final 2 games and Colorado has to lose in order to get the number 2. So is strength of schedule really the tiebreaker if Colorado and Wichita end up tied for the 2? Heck, even if Wichita wins both and Colorado wins its last game, both teams still end up 9-5. Same goes for Allen. Wichita and Allen could both win their final 2 games and finish 9-5.
As we have discussed above, Wichita is dominating Colorado and Allen in the strength of schedule. If Colorado loses to SF and Wichita beats New Mexico, both teams will have 8 wins. Wichita could still lose at GB and finish 8-6 which would be a tie with Colorado. Obviously Allen could win both and finish 9-5 and get the 2 and Colorado and Wichita would be tied for the 3.
If Strenght of Schedule is in fact the tiebreaker then Wichita should beat both Allen and Colorado. I am really confused now after seeing this Facebook post.
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Post by rockybighorn on Jun 5, 2012 13:09:17 GMT -5
I have gone over the numbers & I dont think that what Wichita is saying is correct. This is what I had posted eslwhere as the scenarios:
There are so many scenarios in the Allen, Colorado, Wichita race...
If Allen drops one of their 2 remaining games then I believe they are the automatic #4.
If all teams lose out or all win out then Allen is the #4.
If Wichita wins just one of their last 2, the worst they can be seeded is #3, if they win both then they are #2, regardless of what the other 2 teams do.
If both Wichita & Allen win out & Colorado loses to SF, then Wichita is the 2, Allen the 3 & Colorado 4.
If all teams finish tied then with current opp W-L Wichita is the 2, Colorado 3, & Allen 4.
If Wichita finishes 9-5, Colorado finish 8-6 then by virtue of the strength of schedule tie breaker, Colorado is #3 and Allen is #4.
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Post by wichitawild on Jun 5, 2012 13:27:57 GMT -5
I think a few of your statements are incorrect Rocky:
If Allen drops one of their 2 remaining games then I believe they are the automatic #4. This is not true. What if Wichita goes 0-2 and Allen goes 1-1. Wichita would be 7-7 while Allen would be 8-6. So Allen could lose one and still be the 3.
If Wichita wins just one of their last 2, the worst they can be seeded is #3 This is not true either. What if Allen wins both and Colorado beats SF? Then Colorado and Allen would be 9-5 while Wichita is 8-6. Wichita would be the 4 under this scenerio.
I believe you are right though that under any ties, Wichita wins and under a Colorado/Allen tie, Colorado wins. But the question remains, is strength of schedule the tiebreaker? Apparently the Wichita Wild think a different tiebreaker is used or else they have not done the math to see that they would beat Colorado in a tie to get the number 2 seed.
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Post by rockybighorn on Jun 5, 2012 13:47:41 GMT -5
Sorry I guess before I cut & pasted I didn't realize that my post prior to that was under the assumption that SF will beat Colorado this week & finish @ 8-6. Under that scenario then if Wichita wins 1 of their last 2 ( I assume they will beat NM this week) then they can do no worse than the #3 because they would be tied with Colorado & IF strength of schedule is the tie-breaker they would be ahead on that. You are correct on Allen not being the automatic 4 is they drop 1 of 2, I hadn't played out that entirely. sorry
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Post by rockybighorn on Jun 5, 2012 13:54:12 GMT -5
lol....there are SO many different ways that things can play out. This weeks games will go along way to settling things. I really think SF beat Colorado & Wichita beats NM. Allen could have a tough game against Everett also. The Wild's website was half right & half wrong by my math in clinching the #2. If they win both they are the #2 regardless of what happens to Allen or Colorado. Again, if Wichita finishes tied with either one, as of today's strength of schedule, Wichita has the tie-breaker over both teams. So, if they win out they SHOULD be the #2.
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